The natural world has been irreversibly changed by human actions and this has led to long-term trends towards increasing environmental degradation and scarcity of natural resources. Both of these trends are closely interlinked and will pose significant challenges over the next few decades, requiring large-scale, international action to avoid the worst-case scenario.

Human activities have resulted in air pollution, habitat destruction, soil erosion, desertification, ocean acidification and many other changes that are causing significant stress to ecosystems. With a growing global population, demand for fresh water and arable land for agriculture are expected to increase in the future. The development of new technologies (such as smart farming) will be essential to overcome some of these challenges. However, many such technologies, including clean energy technologies, require critical minerals that are also in short supply. Substantial efforts in terms of both mitigation (reduction of carbon emissions) and adaptation (changing behaviours, consumption patterns, resource management and more) will be required to maintain a level of ecosystem services needed for human wellbeing.

Environment trends

Natural resource scarcity

As the effects of climate change continue to impact the globe, precious, natural resources like fresh water, arable land and minerals are expected to become increasingly scarce, with significant implications for agriculture and food security, as well as the production of many new innovative technologies. According to the US National Intelligence Council, “nearly all of the Earth’s systems are undergoing natural and human-induced stresses outpacing national and international environmental protection efforts.”[1] The World Economic Forum identifies human over-exploitation and/or mismanagement as key drivers of the scarcity of natural resources.[2] Resource scarcity, whether of water, land or minerals, may also be a driver of conflict, particularly where economic and political issues create barriers to access to natural resources.[3​,4]​​​​​

Water, land, and consequences for food production

Water is already scarce and is likely to become even more scarce in future. Only 3% of the world’s water is freshwater, and much of this is is not readily accessible due to factors that include remote location, political boundaries, economics, and purity. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that 1.8 billion people worldwide will face water scarcity by 2025 and 5.2 billion are expected to face water stress. By 2050, the FAO estimates that only 60% of the water needed will be available.[5] climate change may promote glacier melting that could lead to increased flows of water, higher temperatures are also expected to increase water loss due to evaporation.[4] An increasing demand for water will make the extraction and production (e.g. through desalination) of fresh water more energy intensive, and is likely to drive up costs for access to water.[3] Industrial water pollution, inadequate water management, and non-compliance with water sharing agreements and treaty provisions may lead to tensions over access to water sources.[1]

The same forces that are expected to impact water scarcity (climate change, population growth, ‘Urbanization’, economic development, and poor management) will also impact the availability of arable land for farming. This is a serious challenge when projections estimate that average levels of food production will have to increase by around 50% by 2050 (from a 2012 baseline) to meet the needs of the world’s population.[4] Indeed, it is impossible to separate out the issues of water and land scarcity as each affects the other in a significant way. For example, around 70% of global water consumption goes to agriculture, agriculture will be responsible for a large part of the increased demand for water in future[6], and current intensive farming techniques are linked to water pollution, along with air pollution, soil degradation and pest resistance.[4] Water scarcity and other consequences of climate change, such as volatile weather events and sea-level rise, will, on the one hand, reduce the amount of land available for developing new agricultural areas and, on the other hand, lead to reduced agricultural production. The resulting food insecurity is predicted to have a disproportionate effect on developing countries, with some predicting that “Africa could face a near double-digit reduction in crop yields and production volumes over the next decade, as well as rising food prices by similar margins.”[7]

Technology will need to play a major role in overcoming natural resource scarcity and improving agricultural productivity.[4] ‘Smart farming’ and techniques such as hydroponics and vertical farming will be key. Smart farming involves the use of digital technologies – e.g. unmanned machinery, robots, sensors, drones, big data, and advanced analytics – to be able to analyse the individual needs of specific fields, crops, or animals.[8] This kind of precision agriculture is more environmentally benign, minimizes water and electricity use, while maximizing the productivity of the land. Hydroponics (growing plants in mineral solutions instead of soil) and vertical farming (growing crops in vertically stacked layers) both reduce the need for land to grow certain crops and make it more practical to farm them in urban environments.[4]

Critical minerals and consequences for emerging technologies and the energy transition

Scarcity issues also apply to lesser-known natural resources like critical minerals – rare metals such as lithium, tellurium and rare earth metals that are used for batteries, solar panels, and various electronic devices. Demand for these product types will only increase in the coming decades as more people join the middle class and purchase consumer electronics such as smartphones. In addition, as the global community steps up efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and transition to cleaner sources of energy such as electric vehicles (which require a lot of lithium) and solar power, this will increase the demand for these rare metals. As this demand grows, pressure on these limited resources will be significant. With the bulk of known critical mineral deposits in a small number of countries, political and supply chain issues could cause significant challenges in the future.[9]

Scarcity of water, land or minerals will provide both challenges and opportunities for businesses, who may have less readily available resources for production, but who may see potential market opportunities develop for sustainable and eco-friendly production.[10]

 

 

News stories

SDG 13
Climate Action
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
News today is rife with reminders of how climate change is affecting people around the world, from wildfires and floods to the loss of biodiversity and even human lives. But what exactly is climate change?
Climate change is already being felt around the world in a variety of ways. Nature-based solutions are an important piece of the puzzle for reversing the process. 
It’s easy to have mixed feelings about carbon. On the one hand, it’s the foundation for life on Earth. On the other, it’s linked to climate change.
Prioritizing environmental sustainability isn’t just a trend: it’s a vital strategy for securing the health and prosperity of an organization for years to come. Balancing growth with environmental stewardship …
Smart farming and precision agriculture leverage technologies like agricultural drones, robotics, IoT sensors, GPS and farm management information systems to improve production efficiency.
Renowned water expert sheds light on the many opportunities associated with sustainable solutions.  
Water is imperative to survival but is under threat. Standards are vital to preserving, rehabilitating and managing water resources. Here’s why. 
How will we feed 8, 9, 10 billion people at the same time as protecting the environment? Who's going to do it? And what is the role for ISO standards? 
A new partnership with the Delft University of Technology could help identify opportunities for global climate adaptation standards to help coastal communities that are threatened by rising waters.
There are few issues on which all countries can agree, but almost every UN state has committed to the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Smart farming expert Angela Schuster reveals some of the ways that digitalization is transforming agriculture and helping feed the planet.
ISO has put together a group of world experts to apply smart tech to the challenges of sustainably feeding a growing planet.
How does an organization value the dependencies it has on the environment? There’s a lot of information on what makes smarter sustainable strategies, but very little data. Now a new ISO standard provides …
By 2030, water scarcity will have displaced between 24 and 700 million people, according to UN Water, the United Nations coordinating body on water issues. World Water Day is focusing on Sustainable Development …
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 207
Environmental management
  • Published 70 Standards | Developing 24 Projects
  • ISO 14001:2015
    Environmental management systems — Requirements with guidance for use
  • ISO/DIS 14019-1 [Under development]
    Sustainability information
    Part 1: General principles and requirements for validation and verification
  • ISO/DIS 14019-2 [Under development]
    Sustainability information
    Part 2: Principles and requirements for verification processes
  • ISO 14046:2014
    Environmental management — Water footprint — Principles, requirements and guidelines
  • ISO 14068-1:2023
    Climate change management — Transition to net zero
    Part 1: Carbon neutrality
  • ISO 59014:2024
    Environmental management and circular economy — Sustainability and traceability of the recovery of secondary materials — Principles, requirements and guidance
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 23
Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry
  • Published 408 Standards | Developing 61 Projects
  • ISO 17989-1:2015
    Tractors and machinery for agriculture and forestry — Sustainability
    Part 1: Principles
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 224
Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services
  • Published 32 Standards | Developing 13 Projects
  • ISO 24566-1:2023
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 1: Assessment principles
  • ISO 24566-2:2024
    Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 2: Stormwater services
  • ISO/DIS 24566-3 [Under development]
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 3: Drinking Water services
  • ISO/DIS 24566-4 [Under development]
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 4: Wastewater services
  • ISO 46001:2019
    Water efficiency management systems — Requirements with guidance for use
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 282
Water reuse
  • Published 40 Standards | Developing 10 Projects
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 287
Sustainable processes for wood and wood-based products
  • Published 1 Standards | Developing 9 Projects
  • ISO/AWI TR 4083 [Under development]
    Wood and wood-based products - Overview related to the concepts of renewability, reusability, recoverability, recyclability, compostability, biodegradability and circularity – Terminology and existing methodology
  • ISO/DIS 8347 [Under development]
    Measurement procedures associated with the chain of custody in native tropical forest management areas
  • ISO/FDIS 13391-1 [Under development]
    Wood and wood-based products — Greenhouse gas dynamics
    Part 1: Framework for value chain calculations
  • ISO/FDIS 13391-2 [Under development]
    Wood and wood-based products — Greenhouse gas dynamics
    Part 2: Forest carbon balance
  • ISO/FDIS 13391-3 [Under development]
    Wood and wood-based products — Greenhouse gas dynamics
    Part 3: Displacement of greenhouse gas emissions
  • ISO 38200:2018
    Chain of custody of wood and wood-based products
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 298
Rare earth
  • Published 12 Standards | Developing 8 Projects
  • ISO/DIS 17887 [Under development]
    Traceability of rare earths in the supply chain from separated products to permanent magnets
  • ISO 22450:2020
    Recycling of rare earth elements — Requirements for providing information on industrial waste and end-of-life products
  • ISO/TS 22451:2021
    Recycling of rare earth elements — Methods for the measurement of rare earth elements in industrial waste and end-of-life products
  • ISO 22453:2021
    Exchange of information on rare earth elements in industrial wastes and end-of-life cycled products
  • ISO 23664:2021
    Traceability of rare earths in the supply chain from mine to separated products
  • ISO 24544:2024
    Rare earth — Recyclable Neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) resources — Classification, general requirements and acceptance conditions
  • ISO/AWI 24961 [Under development]
    Rare earths and lithium sustainability across the value chain : concentration, extraction, separation, conversion, recycling and reuse
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 323
Circular economy
  • Published 4 Standards | Developing 2 Projects
  • ISO 59004:2024
    Circular economy — Vocabulary, principles and guidance for implementation
  • ISO 59010:2024
    Circular economy — Guidance on the transition of business models and value networks
  • ISO 59020:2024
    Circular economy — Measuring and assessing circularity performance
  • ISO/CD TR 59031 [Under development]
    Circular economy – Performance-based approach – Analysis of cases studies
  • ISO/TR 59032:2024
    Circular economy — Review of existing value networks
  • ISO/FDIS 59040 [Under development]
    Circular economy — Product circularity data sheet
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 333
Lithium
  • Developing 15 Projects
Technical Committee
ISO/PC 316
Water efficient products - Rating
  • Published 1 Standards
  • ISO 31600:2022
    Water efficiency labelling programmes – Requirements with guidance for implementation
Technical Committee
ISO/TMBG
Technical Management Board - groups
  • Published 68 Standards | Developing 11 Projects
  • ISO/TMBG/CMCC Coordination Committee on Critical Minerals
  • ISO/TMBG/SFCC Coordination Committee on Smart Farming
  • IWA 45:2024
    Sustainable critical mineral supply chains

Threatened ecosystems

Ecosystems worldwide are at increasing risk of long-term changes and damage. Changes to plant life-cycles and animal behaviour are observed in both land and marine ecosystems.[11] Threats from pollution, habitat destruction, deforestation, over-exploitation, changes in biodiversity, seabed mining and ocean acidification are all interfering with the natural functioning of the earth’s ecosystems[3,11] alongside the ongoing threat of global warming.[4]

Reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is a critical response to these threats, and, if ambitious emission-reduction targets are achieved, offers some hope for the world’s ecosystems.[4]

Air pollution continues to increase, especially in rapidly growing cities, and will pose significant health risks into the future.[11] By 2035, air pollution may be the top cause of environmentally-related deaths worldwide.[1] Air quality is predicted to become ‘the most significant indicator with regards to quality of life, happiness and other indices.’[3] As growing numbers of people live in urban areas, air pollution can be expected to increase and will especially impact on urban populations.[3] Already, more than 80% of people living in cities are exposed to air pollution that exceeds safe limits.[1]

Signs of hope in relation to air pollution may appear in the form of increased public awareness, cleaner transport options, retrofitted buildings, and improved urban design.[3]

Soil erosion and desertification will increasingly threaten agricultural and habitable land[11], particularly where deforestation and unsustainable farming practices continue.

News stories

SDG 13
Climate Action
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
News today is rife with reminders of how climate change is affecting people around the world, from wildfires and floods to the loss of biodiversity and even human lives. But what exactly is climate change?
Climate change is already being felt around the world in a variety of ways. Nature-based solutions are an important piece of the puzzle for reversing the process. 
It’s easy to have mixed feelings about carbon. On the one hand, it’s the foundation for life on Earth. On the other, it’s linked to climate change.
Small island nations face the brunt of the climate crisis. How do we protect paradise? 
A resilient biodiversity and stable climate go hand in hand, and ISO standards can leverage the synergies between them.
There are few issues on which all countries can agree, but almost every UN state has committed to the Paris Agreement on climate change.
ISO is harmonizing the world’s many metrics, indicators and standards for biodiversity, to give life on Earth a boost.  
Game-changing standards in the race against climate change.
Healthy forests for a healthy planet.
A new expert committee on biodiversity just formed.
A new ISO guide will help ensure climate change issues are addressed in every new standard.
Getting back to basics on Desertification and Drought Day, the UNCCD challenges us to rethink how we use the land.
There is nothing more precious to life than the air we breathe. This year’s World Environment Day theme is air pollution and ISO has a range of international standards that help to combat it.
Our consumption of the earth’s natural reserves has doubled in the last 30 years and a third of the planet’s land is now severely degraded. There is an urgent need to find solutions for land management …
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 207
Environmental management
  • Published 70 Standards | Developing 24 Projects
  • ISO 14002-2:2023
    Environmental management systems — Guidelines for using ISO 14001 to address environmental aspects and conditions within an environmental topic area
    Part 2: Water
  • ISO/CD 14002-3.2 [Under development]
    Environmental management systems — Guidelines for using ISO 14001 to address environmental aspects and conditions within an environmental topic area
    Part 3: Climate
  • ISO/AWI 14002-4 [Under development]
    Environmental management systems — Guidelines for using ISO 14001 to address environmental aspects and conditions within an environmental topic area
    Part 4: Part 4: Resources and waste
  • ISO 14055-1:2017
    Environmental management — Guidelines for establishing good practices for combatting land degradation and desertification
    Part 1: Good practices framework
  • ISO/TR 14055-2:2022
    Environmental management — Guidelines for establishing good practices for combatting land degradation and desertification
    Part 2: Regional case studies
  • ISO 14068-1:2023
    Climate change management — Transition to net zero
    Part 1: Carbon neutrality
  • IWA 42:2022
    Net zero guidelines
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 82/SC 7
Sustainable mining and mine closure
  • Published 5 Standards | Developing 2 Projects
  • ISO/WD 20305 [Under development]
    Mine closure and reclamation — Vocabulary
  • ISO 21795-1:2021
    Mine closure and reclamation planning
    Part 1: Requirements
  • ISO 21795-2:2021
    Mine closure and reclamation planning
    Part 2: Guidance
  • ISO 24419-1:2023
    Mine closure and reclamation – Managing mining legacies
    Part 1: Requirements and recommendations
  • ISO/TR 24419-2:2023
    Mine closure and reclamation – Managing mining legacies
    Part 2: Case studies and bibliography
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 190
Soil quality
  • Published 201 Standards | Developing 32 Projects
  • ISO/FDIS 11074 [Under development]
    Soil quality — Vocabulary
  • ISO 15175:2018
    Soil quality — Characterization of contaminated soil related to groundwater protection
  • ISO/CD TS 18718 [Under development]
    Soil functions and related-ecosystem services: definitions and conceptual framework
  • ISO/CD TS 18721 [Under development]
    Ecological soil functions: indicators and methods
  • ISO/CD 19204 [Under development]
    Soil quality — Procedure for site-specific ecological risk assessment of soil contamination (soil quality TRIAD approach)
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 224
Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services
  • Published 32 Standards | Developing 13 Projects
  • ISO 24566-1:2023
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 1: Assessment principles
  • ISO 24566-2:2024
    Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 2: Stormwater services
  • ISO/DIS 24566-3 [Under development]
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 3: Drinking Water services
  • ISO/DIS 24566-4 [Under development]
    Drinking water, wastewater and storm water systems and services — Adaptation of water services to climate change impacts
    Part 4: Wastewater services
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 234
Fisheries and aquaculture
  • Published 12 Standards | Developing 3 Projects
  • ISO 5020:2022
    Waste reduction and treatment on fishing vessels
  • ISO 17273:2024
    Waste management and reduction from aquaculture facilities in natural water bodies — Principles and guidelines
  • ISO/FDIS 20423 [Under development]
    Carbon footprint for seafood — Product category rules (CFP-PCR) for macroalgae
  • ISO 22948:2020
    Carbon footprint for seafood — Product category rules (CFP–PCR) for finfish
Technical Committee
ISO/TC 331
Biodiversity
  • Developing 5 Projects
  • ISO/DIS 13208 [Under development]
    Biodiversity — Vocabulary
  • ISO/DIS 17298 [Under development]
    Biodiversity – Requirements and guidelines for strategically and operationally addressing biodiversity at the organizational level
  • ISO/DIS 17317 [Under development]
    Biodiversity — Requirements and guidelines for the characterization of products based on native species
  • ISO/DIS 17620 [Under development]
    Biodiversity – Process for designing and implementing biodiversity net gain in development projects
Technical Committee
ISO/TMBG
Technical Management Board - groups
  • Published 68 Standards | Developing 11 Projects
  • ISO/TMBG/CCCC Coordination Committee on Climate Change
  • ISO Guide 82:2019
    Guidelines for addressing sustainability in standards
  • ISO Guide 84:2020
    Guidelines for addressing climate change in standards

References

  1. Global trends. Paradox of progress (US National Intelligence Council, 2017)
  2. The global risks report 2021 (World Economic Forum, 2021)
  3. Future outlook. 100 Global trends for 2050 (UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future, 2017)
  4. Global strategic trends. The future starts today (UK Ministry of Defence, 2018)
  5. Beyond the noise. The megatrends of tomorrow's world (Deloitte, 2017)
  6. Global trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future (Inter-American Development Bank, Inter-American Dialogue, 2016)
  7. Foresight Africa. Top priorities for the continent 2020-2030 (Brookings Institution, 2020)
  8. Future technology for prosperity. Horizon scanning by Europe's technology leaders (EU Commission, 2019)
  9. Critical minerals scarcity could threaten renewable energy future (Stanford University, 2018)
  10. Global trends 2020. Understanding complexity (Ipsos, 2020)
  11. Asia pacific megatrends 2040 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, 2019)